Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
